Tropical Storm Ashobaa Update....

10-June 2015 (10:00 AM)

Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa is expected to track westward over the next several days with a potential landfall in Oman.

The warm waters of the Arabian Sea will allow Ashobaa to strengthen through midweek, potentially reaching minimal hurricane intensity, though some weakening is then expected as Ashobaa closes in on Oman.

The heaviest rain and wind associated with the storm will remain over the open waters of the Arabian Sea through the middle of the week. However, seas will be rough for boaters and swimmers across the northern part of the sea.

09-JUNE-2015 (4:00 PM)

Weather experts have different opinion about ASHOBAA.From here there is no threat for any part of Pakistan.GEPS suggest that storm will continue to move N/W and then become stationary and fizzle out near Oman.

GFS suggest that Cyclone to maintain intensity and move NW and make landfall along the cost of Oman as a Cyclone on 11-June-2015.

09-JUNE-2015 (11:30 AM)

The cyclonic storm (ASHOBAA) over eastcentral Arabian sea has moved in a northnorthwesterlydirection and lay centered at 0530 hours PST of 9th June 2015 near Lat.20.0°N and Long.65.0°E, about 550 Km south of  Karachi and   830 km west of  640 km eastsoutheast of Sur (Oman) and 800 km eastsoutheast of Muscat (Oman). The system would move northnorthwestwards and intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours and it would move northwestwards thereafter

The Arabian Sea coastline from Oman to Pakistan remains on alert for potential impacts later this week if Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa makes landfall.

The warm waters of the Arabian Sea will allow Ashobaa to strengthen through midweek, potentially reaching minimal hurricane intensity.

The heaviest rain and wind associated with the storm will remain over the open waters of the Arabian Sea during this time. However, seas will turn increasingly rough for boaters and swimmers across the northern part of the sea.

The circulation around the storm will also bring increased moisture to Costal areas of Pakistan from Karachi to Gawadar, leading to rounds of showers and thunderstorms," Some of the rain will be heavy and will unleash excessive downpours.

The cyclone will then face a battle with drier air as it moves northwestward toward the coast from northeastern Oman to southwestern Pakistan later this week. The result will determine if its flooding rain moves onshore.

(08-JUNE-2015) 3:30 pm


During the second half of the week, the cyclone will near the northern coast of the Arabian Sea. There is still some question as to the eventual path of the storm, but areas from near Karachi, Pakistan to Muscat, Oman should monitor the situation for updates.

If the tropical cyclone tracks into eastern Oman it could cause major flooding across the mountainous desert terrain." Flooding will also threaten areas along the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan should the storm track farther to the east.Climatologically, tropical cyclones moving into the northern Arabian Sea dissipate rapidly due to the abundant dry and and lack of rich tropical moisture.once nearing the coast the cyclone should weaken trend as dry air wraps into the system.

(08-JUNE-2015) 3:00 pm

Cyclonic storm named Ashobaa is the first tropical storm of the pre-monsoon season in the Arabian Sea.The system is centered at 17.9°N and 67.2°E.t is moving north-northwestwards at a speed of 15 kmph and is punched with the wind speed of 75 kmph gusting up to 90 kmph.

A tropical cyclone in Arabian sea now lies 850 km south of Karachi and likely to move northwestwards during next 24 hours

08-JUNE-2015

The deep depression over east-central Arabian Sea has further intensified and 01A is now a Cyclone. Pressure 990mb. Moved NNW. Location 17.14N, 67.55E. Will be named in 4hrs.and rapidly gaining strength. and moved northnorthwestwards and lay centered at 0530 hours PST of 8th June 2015 near Lat.17.5°N and Long.67.5°E, about 1000km south of Karachi 590 km westsouthwest of Mumbai.

06-JUNE-2015

AS-1 prevails as a low in the Arabian Sea, at 11N and 67.6E and is expected to track N/NW next 24-36 hrs, and deepen from the current estimated core of 1002/1004 mb to 1000 mb. 
Currently in warm waters at 31c, after crossing 15N, it may run into competitively cooler waters at 29c, and then again NW into waters at 28c. Consequently, it may stagger at Well Marked Low or Depression Stage around North Arabian Sea and dissipate as a system by the 9th before hitting Land.

05-June-2015

GFS Models Showing 95A to move North and become a Cyclone by Monday, 8-Jun and reach near to South Pakistan Coastal areas.95 A Is expected to drift north and GFS models suggest a rapid intensification to cyclone by monday.

5 JUNE-2015

Weather experts across the world have different opinion about the system’s development and progress in Arabian sea. The weather models are not in agreement with each other, in terms of the cyclonic circulation’s track and strength. The system is making different  variations at the moment, in fact significant changes are taking place.

Currently we can say that the cyclonic circulation could strengthen into a depression and then subsequently to a tropical cyclone.

According to “Weather for Pakistan”, the cyclonic circulation is at a position and it could turn into a tropical storm and threaten Pakistan or Gujarat coast. Alternatively, the system could curve towards Oman after developing into a storm. f it develops into a storm.Due to cloudiness  rain thunder shower expected over costal areas of Sindh and Balochistan.  

Weather for Pakistan will give more updates,news Alerts.........

4-JUNE-2015

During pas 48 hours circulation over Arabian Sea now it is on and tracked as 95 A.As long as 95 A intensifying moving N/N/W.

Tropical storm over Arabian Sea?

3-June-2015

Yes there are chances of a tropical activity in the Arabian sea.According to few computer models, during the next week of June some thunderstorms would bring widespread monsoon rainfall to the west coast of India and from the same thunderstorms a deep depression or a cyclonic storm might form on Saturday (06 june 2015) that could move till coastal Gujarat and having some affect on costal Sindh and Balochistan during next week.

Cyclones in the Arabian sea form mostly from May till June and then from September till October, monsoon season plays a vital role for the formation of cyclone in this basin. Tropical storms that hit Pakistan are mostly remnants by the time reach Pakistan or make landfall in south eastern Sindh which is not very much populated they rarely move towards the Balochistan coast.

Cylones are very rare in this part of the world but the Arabian Sea does have some potential in giving birth to the strongest tropical cyclones of the north Indian ocean.

Weather for Pakistan will give more updates,news Alerts.........